The entrance poll data show that past is prologue in today’s caucuses. Cruz is leading among the 39 percent who are very conservative by a 40 to 21 percent margin over Trump (Rubio has 15 percent). Rubio leads Trump 27-26 among somewhat conservatives (Cruz has 18 percent). And Trump leads Rubio 34-25 among moderates, with Cruz getting a paltry 9 percent.
This is exactly what the theory behind Four Faces would predict based on the candidate’s profiles. We shall see if the final results mirror these breakdowns.