The Corner

Dean Slip-Sliding Away?

Dean slips toward third in latest ARG N.H. track: Kerry 27, Dean 22, Clark 19.

The analysis:

“Is Howard Dean heading to third place in New Hampshire?

As the results for January 21 indicate, Howard Dean continues to lose support. This trend may continue as Dean’s favorable continued to drop on January 21. In the 3-day sample ending January 19, 57% of likely Democratic primary voters had a favorable opinion of Dean, 19% had an unfavorable opinion of Dean, and 24% were aware of Dean but undecided. In the January 20 sample, 39% had a favorable opinion of Dean, 30% had an unfavorable opinion of Dean, and 31% were undecided. In the January 21 sample, 33% had a favorable opinion of Dean, 30% had an unfavorable opinion of Dean, and 37% were undecided. The movement from favorable to undecided signals a continuing drop in ballot preference for Dean.

In 1992, Bill Clinton dropped from 37% to 25% in 5 days, giving up the lead to Paul Tsongas. By the eighth day of his drop, however, Clinton was able to begin to regain support (by appearing on “60 Minutes” and holding a televised town meeting in New Hampshire, among other things). The Dean campaign does not have the luxury of time because the Clinton model would have Dean just beginning to regain support on primary day. Also, Clinton’s campaign responded immediately to Clinton’s drop.”