A recent Gallup poll found an increase in the percentage of Americans who identify as “pro-choice,” results that received a considerable amount of media coverage. The short-term gain in support for legal abortion seemed plausible, since much of the poll was conducted after the leak of the draft Dobbs majority opinion in May.
But a closer look at the demographic breakdown of the survey results raises serious concerns about the reliability of this particular poll. In particular, nearly all of the gain in support for legal abortion appears to have taken place among racial and ethnic minorities. What’s more, the poll results suggest that there was an implausibly large decline in pro-life sentiment among Hispanics.
Even though the poll found an overall increase in support for legal abortion, it also found that abortion attitudes among white Americans remained relatively stable. Specifically, the poll found that 14 percent of whites thought abortion should be “illegal in all” circumstances. Gallup polls between 2018 and 2021 found that 16 percent of whites thought that abortion should be “illegal in all” circumstances. This question, then, and several other questions included in the Gallup abortion survey, found little change in abortion attitudes among white respondents.
But at the same time, this latest Gallup survey found sizable increases in support for legal abortion among racial and ethnic minorities. For instance, the poll found that only 10 percent of “people of color” thought that abortion should be “illegal in all” circumstances. Previous Gallup polls, however, had indicated that 23 percent of “total Hispanic or non-white Americans” said abortion should be “illegal in all” circumstances. A 13-point drop over such a short timespan seems highly unlikely, especially given that the overall abortion attitudes of non-minorities exhibited little change. It also seems unlikely that the leaked Dobbs opinion would have a far greater effect on the views of racial and ethnic minorities than on the views of whites.
Gallup has not released specific data on the views of either African Americans or Hispanics from the 2022 abortion survey. But an analysis of the views of African Americans and Hispanics from other recent Gallup polls raises additional concerns. In past abortion surveys, Gallup has surveyed a similar number of African Americans and Hispanics. In Gallup polls conducted between 2017 and 2019, 16 percent of African Americans said abortion should be “illegal in all” circumstances. In the aftermath of the leak of the draft Dobbs decision, a decline from 16 percent to about 10 percent appears plausible.
Even so, I find it implausible that approximately 10 percent of Hispanics think that abortion should be “illegal in all” circumstances, in part because Gallup polls conducted between 2017 and 2019 found that 34 percent of Hispanics thought that abortion should be “illegal in all” circumstances. A decline of approximately 24 points in less than five years strains credulity. It should be noted that Gallup also categorizes some other racial groups, including Asian Americans and Native Americans, as “people of color.” However, since these racial groups constitute a small percentage of the survey, shifts in opinions among these racial groups would have relatively little effect on changes in overall abortion attitudes among racial minorities.
This new Gallup poll also has unusual findings regarding the abortion attitudes of low-income earners. In Gallup polls between 2018 and 2021, 24 percent of those making less than $40,000 a year said abortion should be “illegal in all” circumstances. But the latest poll finds that only 15 percent of those making less than $40,000 a year said the same. A nine-point drop over a short time period is surprising. It should also be noted that nearly every reputable abortion survey finds that pro-life sentiment among low income earners is significantly above average. However, the fact this Gallup survey finds that the abortion attitudes of low-income earners are close to the survey average raises additional doubts about this poll’s accuracy.
Trends in the abortion attitudes of Hispanics and low income earners play an important role in debates over sanctity of life issues. One argument often made by supporters of legal abortion is that pro-life laws place an unfair burden on low income earners and racial minorities. However, pro-lifers have effectively responded by citing polling data going back to the 1970s showing strong opposition to abortion among individuals with below average incomes. Similarly, many polls are showing greater opposition to abortion among Hispanics. In fact, a 2019 Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) poll found that Hispanics were the ethnic group least supportive of the legality of abortion.
Pundits with an interest in life issues look forward to the release of the annual Gallup abortion poll. Since Gallup has consistently conducted polls on abortion for an extended period of time, its data are helpful in identifying trends in abortion attitudes. Unfortunately, the results of the May 2022 Gallup poll raise serious concerns about the accuracy of this particular survey. It makes little sense that nearly all of the gains in support for legal abortion took place among racial minorities. Furthermore, the results imply an implausibly large decline in support for the pro-life position among Hispanics.
As such, I am asking Gallup to provide a detailed racial breakdown of the results from their 2022 abortion poll and to consider commissioning another poll on abortion attitudes in the very near future. Surveys inform public-policy debates, and abortion has become a salient political issue in the aftermath of the reversal of Roe. Accurate and detailed information about the abortion attitudes of key political demographics would certainly benefit activists, legislators, and the general public.