Democratic Governor Andy Beshear Would Decide When to Hold a Special Election for a Senate Vacancy in Kentucky

Mitch McConnell has been absent from the Senate for three weeks, since June 14, when he was hospitalized. McConnell’s absence leaves the Senate GOP down a vote, which can be crucial for such things as passing the defense budget. Longtime McConnell haters on the left and the right are pouncing on the absence and near silence from the McConnell camp regarding his health. But the issue isn’t the general question of his fitness for office: The 84-year-old McConnell stepped down from leadership a year and a half ago, announced his retirement from the Senate, and will be replaced in a general election this fall. The question is whether he’s capable of returning to work at all and, if so, how soon. So long as McConnell can cast a vote, it’s better that he stay in office rather than create a vacancy that would take significant time and effort to fill. CNN’s Scott Jennings reported yesterday: “I spoke to my old friend Mitch McConnell this morning, the senior Senator from Kentucky. He’s still recovering in the hospital. We talked for just shy of 20 minutes … about IRAN, UKRAINE, the unfolding situation in MAINE, my visit to the TR Presidential Library, and even a little bit of Senate history. I told him we want to see him back at work as soon as possible.”

Kentucky’s Democratic governor and potential presidential hopeful Andy Beshear is eager to score points with Democratic primary voters, so he released a public letter addressed to McConnell demanding to know the state of his “health and wellbeing, and ability to hold office” and asking that he “fully update Kentuckians” regarding his health. (Suppress your chortles at the idea of a prominent Democrat’s taking this stance so soon after the Biden years.)

Unlike many governors, however, Beshear does not have the power to select a replacement senator. McConnell and his allies in the Kentucky legislature, in which Republicans have held a veto-proof majority for some time, changed the law in 2021 to require the governor to pick a replacement from the same party as the person being replaced, and then they took away the replacement power entirely in 2024, over Beshear’s veto. Now, if McConnell were to step down, Beshear would have to call a special election to fill out the rest of the term. Presumably, Representative Andy Barr (R.) and former Representative Charles Booker (D.), the candidates to replace McConnell, would be swiftly chosen to run in the special election. But here’s why a vacancy would be bad for Republicans: Beshear would have some leeway in deciding when to call an election and would have every incentive to delay it as long as possible in order to deny Republicans a vote in the Senate:

Kentucky statutes do not lay out a timeline on when exactly the special election must be held, but there are several time requirements to give voters, candidates and political parties a chance to organize prior to an election. Once the governor issues a proclamation, a copy must be sent to the sheriffs of each county at least 63 days before the election. Then, political parties or organizations can file petitions and certificates of nomination, with a deadline of 56 days before the election.

If the partisan environment is sour enough, Beshear might feel confident in Democrats’ running advantage in special elections to roll the dice on getting Booker into the Senate, even temporarily, via a low-turnout election on an unusual day. But given the depth of Kentucky’s redness, he’s much more likely simply to sit on his hands. Republicans would have no recourse: It is always hard to stop a man from doing nothing. Indeed, nobody knows that better than McConnell. Which is why, if McConnell has a choice in the matter, he shouldn’t quit unless he just isn’t going to be able to return and vote at all.