“We simply do not defeat an incumbent president in wartime.”
The quote above is from Mark Mellman. Mark is a Democratic pollster. And he’s very partisan. And he’s been working for Kerry this year.
But Mark is no fool and he has a reputation to maintain.
He explains his reasoning at some length in a column in The Hill this morning. He predicts that Bush will get 51.6% of the two-party vote.
By contrast, Jay Cost is predicting Bush will get less than that: 48.63% to Kerry’s 46.24%.