Democrats may be on the verge of frittering away one of the most winnable House seats up for election this year.
The Michigan primary falls next Tuesday, and all eyes are focused on the marquee Democratic Senate primary there between “Dr.” Abdul El-Sayed and Representative Haley Stevens, a race I have somehow managed to avoid writing about all year long — mostly because until about a week ago I had no idea who would win. (To those dying for a preview of the 100th Anniversary edition of the Carnival of Fools, there you have it: The DSA is likely to continue its rise across the national Democratic Party on Tuesday.)
But there are smaller scrums on next week’s primary ballot that may also play a role in determining the state’s congressional delegation. The most notable among them is Michigan’s (currently Republican-held) seventh congressional district — where Democrats may be on the verge of frittering away one of the most winnable House seats up for election this year. Michigan’s seventh district is centered around the state capital of Lansing, and is one of the most marginal seats in the entire House of Representatives. Held by incumbent Tom Barrett since 2025, prior to that it was the seat held by Senator Elissa Slotkin before she moved to the upper chamber.
Michigan’s seventh district has a Cook PVI (partisan voting index) of “EVEN,” which is to say it neither leans Democratic nor Republican on a presidential level; under neutral conditions (which of course never entirely occur in the wild), it is expected to split its votes 50/50. Barrett himself only narrowly picked up the open seat in 2024, winning 50-47 during a year where statewide turnout was supercharged with Trump on the ballot. (Recall that Trump himself only won Michigan by a point himself, 49–48.) Although he is a cromulent enough candidate in his own right, it is safe to say that he owes his job to an extremely favorable national environment.
Needless to say, 2026 is . . . not a favorable national environment for Republicans. The president currently sits between an utterly miserable 32-34 percent approval rating in the most recent national polls, and if you think those numbers are going to suddenly rise between now and election day, I’d like to remind you that the Iran war is still ongoing and Trump’s tariffs are still crippling the economy. Barrett would be in deep trouble in this environment even were he a longtime incumbent.
But now, according to Axios, the Democrats might just get in their own way once again. Like so many races this year, the Democratic primary has devolved into a battle between an Establishment candidate (Bridget Brink, former ambassador to Ukraine) and an ultra-progressive backed by the Congressional Progressive Caucus and Bernie Sanders (William Lawrence, a climate activist who founded the Sunrise Movement).
Except, nobody remembered to ask Senator Slotkin’s opinion on the matter. As the former Democratic representative from the district, she apparently seems to feel she should have a say in who gets the nomination. And instead of backing Brink — the “Establishment” pick — she has chosen to throw her endorsement to (as well as cut campaign ads for) a third candidate, retired Navy SEAL and Obama aide Matt Maasdam. Maasdam is running in the same lane as Brink, which means he stands a good chance splitting the vote and playing spoiler to her, as Lawrence squeezes through to victory on the back of united progressive enthusiasm.
To say that national and statewide Democrats are displeased is to put it mildly. The Congressional Women’s Caucus — which Slotkin was once a part of as a member of the House — had already endorsed Bridget Brink. And now to be suddenly bigfooted by Senator Slotkin? (And for a man, no less?) Axios quotes one senior House Democrat: “The Women’s [Caucus] went apes***. And I mean apes***.” Local Democrats are going on the record with their names to criticize her: “State Rep. Jennifer Conlin, who described Slotkin as a mentor, told Axios she ‘found it so perplexing’ the senator endorsed Maasdam given that Brink shares her background as a woman in national security.”
What it means, most likely, is that William Lawrence will win the nomination on Tuesday. And what that means is that Democrats will have chosen the only candidate who could possibly lose in November. (Alas, he probably won’t.) Let me end with a wonderful quote from an unnamed Michigan state legislator, as related by Axios in their piece. “It’s a serious clusterf***. I am just sitting back eating popcorn because now it’s so f***ed up it’s just, ‘Let’s just enjoy this.'”
Ladies and gentlemen, get that man a subscription to the Carnival of Fools. I know a potential reader when I see one.