The Corner

Off the Demographic Cliff

Taiwan has now joined the select group of territories with Total Fertility Rate below 1.0.

(It’s a very select group: The only place thus listed by the CIA World Factbook is Macau. There is some variation in the TFR numbers depending on how they’re sourced, though. I have seen Singapore and Hong Kong both listed as below 1.0, though I can’t now find the references.)

Recall that 2.1 is replacement level, the figure you need to keep your population size constant. At 1.0 you’re only producing half as many babies as you need for stable population size.

There may be particular factors depressing this year’s numbers:

The government, however, blames the lower birth rate on superstition.

The year 2009 was considered an unlucky year to get married, and 2010 — the year of the tiger — a bad year to have children.

However, officials say this year is considered a lucky one as it is the country’s 100th anniversary. [I.e. the Republic of China, which is still Taiwan’s official name for itself — J.D.]

Between January and July, the number of marriages rose more than 12% compared to the same period last year, and the number of births also shot up.

Next year, the year of the dragon, is especially auspicious for having children.

Maybe so, but don’t be looking for a Somalia-level TFR (that would be 6.35). On the bright side, don’t be looking for a Somalia-scale famine either.

Most Popular

PC Culture

Hate-Crime Hoaxes Reflect America’s Sickness

On January 29, tabloid news site TMZ broke the shocking story that Jussie Smollett, a gay black entertainer and progressive activist, had been viciously attacked in Chicago. Two racist white men had fractured his rib, poured bleach on him, and tied a noose around his neck. As they were leaving, they shouted ... Read More

Ilhan Omar’s Big Lie

In a viral exchange at a congressional hearing last week, the new congresswoman from Minnesota, Ilhan Omar, who is quickly establishing herself as the most reprehensible member of the House Democratic freshman class despite stiff competition, launched into Elliott Abrams. She accused the former Reagan official ... Read More

Questions for Those Who Believed Jussie Smollett

The “we reported the Jussie Smollett case responsibly” contention has been blasted to smithereens. Twitter accounts and headlines in the Washington Post, the New York Times, and the Los Angeles Times reported as fact Jussie Smollett’s wildly implausible allegations, and many other journalists did so as ... Read More
PC Culture

Fake Newspeople

This week, the story of the Jussie Smollett hoax gripped the national media. The story, for those who missed it, went something like this: The Empire actor, who is both black and gay, stated that on a freezing January night in Chicago, in the middle of the polar vortex, he went to a local Subway store to buy a ... Read More

White Progressives Are Polarizing America

To understand how far left (and how quickly) the Democratic party has moved, let’s cycle back a very short 20 years. If 1998 Bill Clinton ran in the Democratic primary today, he’d be instantaneously labeled a far-right bigot. His support for the Religious Freedom Restoration Act, the Defense of Marriage Act, ... Read More