Vanity Fair‘s Gabriel Sherman’s “sources” inform him that Florida governor Ron DeSantis is telling donors that he will not challenge Donald Trump for the Republican nomination in 2024, opting instead to run in 2028.
This beggars belief for a number of reasons. As I wrote in August, polling shows Trump is the front-runner, but a soft one, and DeSantis would be foolish to wait for his iron to cool before striking. If he were to wait until 2028 to run, he risks running a redux of the doomed 2016 Chris Christie campaign for president. Blackberry cellphones were cutting-edge, their own kind of fascination, really, in 2002. Not so much in 2022.
But even if you believe the logic behind a 2024 campaign isn’t quite as compelling as I do, the reasons that Sherman’s sources — “four prominent Republicans” — cite for DeSantis’s alleged determination to push back his plans are much less so.
“He can walk into the presidency in 2028 without pissing off Trump or Florida,” posited one of His Prominences. “What would you rather do? Be the governor of Florida for certain or run for president?”
This is a Billy Madison “I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul”–caliber explanation.
No one “walks into the presidency.” You bite, and scratch, and claw, and degrade yourself into the presidency — although perhaps not degrade yourself so much as to suggest, six years out, that someone could easily come into the nuclear codes. All you can do is put yourself in position, pick your spot, gut it out, and pray. Also, if Floridians overwhelmingly reelect DeSantis as governor, something tells me they won’t mind him as their president. Besides, DeSantis could continue serving as the Sunshine State’s governor during his campaign and carry on in the post even if he fell short in the primary or general election.
And then there’s that last question: Governor of Florida or a shot at the presidency? Has this esteemed GOP elite with many leather-bound books and a home that smells of mahogany ever spoken with an American politician? You might as well ask someone if they’d rather be disemboweled or win Olympic gold. Governor of Florida means as much to an office-seeker as sheriff of Smalltown once he’s pictured himself in the Oval Office.
One more thing.
Kellyanne Conway, Trump’s once and forever adviser, talking about DeSantis in July: “He’s a great governor, he’s fascinating. He could be a two-term [governor], and he’s got a great sense for the culture warrior part too. Ron DeSantis can be the best two-term governor in Florida in modern history and run for president before he’s 50.”
Who does that sound like?