Republicans seeking to beat Donald Trump in the 2024 primary have a dilemma. In a normal political world, the most potent line of attack against Trump would be that he lost to President Biden already in 2020, so it makes no sense to renominate him when other choices are available. However, because Trump managed to convince a majority of Republican voters that the 2020 election was stolen, his challengers risk alienating potential voters by saying he lost. I’ve been joking to friends and colleagues over the past few years that the way to get around it is to say, “Trump let Biden steal the election. He was president, he knew Democrats were going to try and rig it, and he couldn’t stop the steal. What makes you think he’ll be able to do so this time?”
In gearing up for his own presidential run, Florida governor Ron DeSantis has started making his own attempts to thread the needle.
Everybody knew whom DeSantis was talking about in a visit to Iowa over the weekend when he said: “Governing is not about entertaining. Governing is not about building a brand or talking on social media and virtue signaling. It’s ultimately about winning and producing results.”
Back in Florida on Monday, asked about whether Trump lost the election due to “fraud,” it was pretty clear that what DeSantis really wanted to say was that Trump’s unpopularity cost Republicans the House in 2018, cost them the Senate and presidency in 2020, and led to an historic underperformance in 2022. But he can’t just say that.
Instead, DeSantis answered, “Well, I look at the last however many election cycles, 2018, we lost the House. . . . We lost the Senate in 2020, Biden becomes president and has done a huge amount of damage,” he said. “Very unpopular in 2022, and we were supposed to have this big red wave and other than like Florida and Iowa, I didn’t see a red wave across this country.”
#BREAKING: DeSantis asked if Trump lost the election, if fraud is responsible for the 2020 result
"I look at the last however many election cycles […] In 2020, Biden becomes president and has done a huge amount of damage […] I didn't see a red wave [in 2022]…" pic.twitter.com/L2CE6OpleO
— Florida’s Voice (@FLVoiceNews) May 15, 2023
Notice the careful framing — he said “we lost” the House and Senate, but that “Biden becomes president.” It’s a clear effort to say Trump lost without actually saying it.
It’s unclear to me whether or not DeSantis will be able to sustain this posture throughout a long campaign, when he’ll be pushed not just by the media, but by voters in town halls as well as rivals for the nomination on the debate stage. (I assume there will be at least one candidate who will be willing to say Trump lost.)