I’m glad to see I’m not alone, Rich.
As I’ve tried to outline, there is an ambiguity to the war in Ukraine that may lead the world into danger. That ambiguity is NATO’s actual role in the war. At times, Putin has tried to clarify that Ukraine is just a pawn of the Western alliance. That is why he asked for bilateral talks with the United States at one point. This dismisses Ukraine (wrongly) as just a client state of D.C. The ambiguity is something that the Western alliance seems to embrace.
On the one hand, “No, NATO is not at war with Russia; it is just supporting Ukraine.” On the other hand, “When Russia loses, it will be a tremendous victory for a strengthened NATO alliance.” It would be very easy for either the U.S. or Russia to miscalculate from here.
The whole war can be seen as a test by Russia of how far NATO will go in Ukraine. During Putin’s buildup at the border, NATO would not publicly shut the NATO membership door to Ukraine in order to avoid war. Perhaps that was the right move; NATO should not publicly give in to coercive diplomacy. Then again, Zelensky seemed open to it at one point. Many U.S. commentators and leaders simply presume that Moscow understands Ukrainian membership in NATO to be a dead letter. Maybe they do understand that, but we seem to assume Russia is rational or irrational only when it suits another narrative.
Russia could try its last desperate move against Ukraine after concluding that NATO has finally set limits to its involvement in the war, only for NATO to receive that act as a provocation or an unwelcome precedent that must be punished.
Every Cold War president, from Harry Truman to Ronald Reagan, made avoiding a direct war with Moscow their top foreign policy priority. Russia’s limited involvement in Vietnam or our limited involvement in Afghanistan were never billed as hopes for establishing regime change in Washington and Moscow.
Ultimately, it looks like U.S. officials are clarifying that, indeed NATO would enter the war as full belligerents if it escalates. That is something the American people should have a say over.