The Corner

Dewhurst Camp Pollster Finds Dewhurst Leading by Four Points

The Dewhurst campaign e-mailed reporters a memo today stating that their pollsters’ results were finding David Dewhurst in the lead:

We thought you may be interested in taking a look at the only Texas poll fresh from the field last night, performed with live operators and by Baselice & Associates, which has more experience surveying Texas Republicans than any pollster in the country. The following results are from the N=704 likely Republican primary voters interviewed between July 26-29, 2012. 

David Dewhurst leads Ted Cruz on the Republican primary run-off ballot for U.S. Senate by 48% to 44%, respectively.

Among the 82% of the sample who participated in the May GOP primary and who are certain to vote, Dewhurst leads 48% to 45%.

Dewhurst has consistently been winning senior citizens on the ballot test. Currently, Dewhurst leads 55% to 38% among senior citizens. Note: Slightly more than two out of five voters in the May GOP primary were senior citizens. Therefore, we can expect a similar, if not higher, percentage of the turnout from senior citizens in this run-off.

There has been some discussion about what types of voters are going to participate in this month’s Republican primary run-off election. It is important to note that other polls that have been publicly released only screen in voters who are definitely going to vote in the run-off, and/or b) who participated in the May primary. Our poll is more inclusive in that it casts a slightly wider net, and rightfully so. For example, we have already observed that one out of six early voters in this run-off did not participate in May primary election.

It is a campaign poll, so that should be taken into account. On the other hand, PPP is the only independent firm to have polled this race since early voting began, which is unfortunate; it would be good to be able to compare these internal numbers with two or three independent polls. 

Katrina TrinkoKatrina Trinko is a political reporter for National Review. Trinko is also a member of USA TODAY’S Board of Contributors, and her work has been published in various media outlets ...

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