It seems it’s a distinct possibility:
"The descriptions of all three unidentified objects shot down Feb. 10-12 match the shapes, altitudes and payloads of the small pico balloons, which can usually be purchased for $12-180 each, depending on the type"
— Dave Brown (@dave_brown24) February 16, 2023
If this turns out to be the case, just remember the corollary to Hanlon’s razor: “Never attribute to aliens that which is adequately explained by stupidity.”