One of my assumptions during the omnibus fiasco in December was that Mitch McConnell went along with funding the government for a longer period than was necessary (including funding the war in Ukraine) in part as an effort to bail out Kevin McCarthy. McConnell knew that McCarthy had a very narrow majority that depended upon the votes of restive groups. Some of those folks wanted a serious effort to use a government shutdown or debt-ceiling fight to extract concessions that the House cannot gain in any way other than by refusing to act; some wanted the same, but for the public spectacle; some wanted to rebel against the bipartisan consensus on Ukraine.
Either way, with McCarthy still needing to nail down support for his Speakership and with Republicans not wanting to lurch immediately in January into a fight that would play to all the worst aspects of the party’s image, McConnell and the other omnibus backers may have thought they could give McCarthy a breather to get settled in, get all the committees assigned and running, and do some publicly positive things first.
If that was the plan, it backfired spectacularly — at least from McCarthy’s perspective. With no policy to fight over at the outset and unhappy that they had issues taken off the table before gaining the majority, the insurgents went directly for McCarthy’s head instead. He can’t make concessions to save himself because he lacks issues upon which to do so.
McConnell may have intended to light a victory cigar for his fellow Republican leader, but as of now, it seems he handed him a cigarette and a blindfold instead.