More on Scott Brown from E. J. Dionne, Jr.:
My gut tells me that Coakley will pull this out. That’s partly because Massachusetts is such a Democratic state and partly because these polls give Democrats fair warning that they may have a fight on their hands — they will thus put a lot more resources into the final week than they might have otherwise. (Those who believe the race actually is close point to the fact that the Coakley campaign was rather laid back over the holidays, while Brown continued to scrap.) I also think Coakley has a base of female voters who want a woman in a top job, after years of Massachusetts voters rejecting one female candidate after another.
The one factor that gives me pause is that my dear native state has many more moderate-to-conservative voters than most outsiders realize. On a day of bad Democratic turnout, Brown would have a shot. If he comes close but falls short, expect a lot of gnashing of conservative teeth that the national party didn’t put enough into this race early on.