“Speculation” may explain some gasoline-price rises, but the downside of speculation is impossible unless there is bad news to speculate about, like the following: the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz may get hotter rather than cooler; the U.S. as a major consumer and producer is not eager to tap new sources of oil; U.S. fiscal policy is to print money, borrow, and not back the dollar; people may drive more rather than less in the upcoming summer; China and India may soon be using more not less oil; and the global economy may recover somewhat and spike demand rather than get worse and lower it.
In response to all this, we have no energy policy. I think what is going on is something like this: “Until the reelection campaign is over, cap-and-trade, European-level gas prices, massive subsidies to wind and solar, and more Solyndras are not to be publicly discussed; Bush’s leasing of federal oil lands and private-land fracking and horizontal drilling are okay developments, but not ones to be emulated after 2012; drilling and new supplies of American oil and gas are inconsequential, but both the Saudis and the strategic reserve can be tapped for 3–4 million more barrels a day to send a signal to improve supply and demand and lower prices by September–November 2012; brag on low American demand and more domestic supply, but not to the extent that anyone might ask why, in fact, both are true.”
I think that’s about it.