My latest column concerns the political fallout from the Dobbs decision — and, crucially, from the way Republicans and pro-lifers have responded to the decision.
There is a lot of overlap between those two groups, Republicans and pro-lifers, but they also have some distinct interests. When people say that Dobbs is backfiring, they mean it with respect to Republicans’ partisan interests. I don’t think you can really make the argument that Dobbs has been self-defeating for pro-lifers. We will certainly end the year with more legal protection for unborn children than we started. If a pro-choice backlash costs the Republicans a few House and Senate seats, that’s a trade-off that committed pro-lifers will not mind making.
A political setback for Republicans will be a rout for pro-lifers as well only if one or more of the following happen: 1) Republicans do so poorly and their defeats are blamed so widely on the abortion issue that the party capitulates on the issue; or 2) Republicans do so poorly that Democrats can pass a sweeping abortion-rights bill at the federal level. And even that second result, while a calamity, would not put pro-lifers in as bad a position as they were under Roe, since a future Congress could repeal or modify that law. But it would be much better if that result were averted by Republicans’ taking over at least one chamber of Congress.