The following conversation is drawn from The Editors podcast.
Rich Lowry: So, Charlie, in your view, what are the percentage odds at this moment that Ron DeSantis will win the Republican presidential nomination?
Charles C. W. Cooke: I think he has a slightly higher chance than he did before. I think on reflection, he won the first debate, or at least he came out of it in the best position. I’ve heard from a number of people in Iowa that while Trump is undoubtedly winning, the support is softer than the polls often make it look. And I think that this hurricane is going to provide DeSantis with an opportunity to show what he is good at, which is administration. DeSantis is not Ronald Reagan. He lacks his warmth. He’s not Bill Clinton. He lacks the interest in people, but he is very good at being an executive. I think the arrival of Hurricane Ian last year helped DeSantis win as big as he did. I think there are a lot of people who aren’t so political who looked at his response and thought that it was impressive. So, I would put him now maybe at 30 percent.
Lowry: 30, wow, okay.
Noah?
Noah Rothman: I’m gonna say I agree with Charlie that he’s still behind the eight ball, but 35 percent maybe.
Lowry: Wow.
Rothman: Maybe 40 percent, somewhere along those lines. I’ve been saying for a long time that I think Trump’s support is softer than it looks in the polls. It’s very deep in the middle, the 25 percent who are his base, but shallow around the sides.
Lowry: So you’re like 50 percent on Trump’s chances now?
Rothman: I think he’s 45 percent. I’ve said I take the field, and I still take the field.
Lowry: That’s bold. MBD?
Michael Brendan Dougherty: I’m totally with Noah. I think DeSantis is either 40 or 45 percent for the nomination. I think Trump is 40 percent.
Lowry: You think DeSantis has a higher chance of winning than Trump?
Dougherty: Yeah, I think, Trump’s indictments weigh on him. I think that there is just air coming out of the Trump balloon. I think that Iowa and New Hampshire are determined to give someone a ride up, to give Trump a real challenge. And once that happens, I really think all bets are off and all of Trump’s downsides start weighing on the Republican voter. I do believe in some kind of inherent value that it’s not just an illusion created by the willfulness of Republican sentiment — Republican sentiment does follow the news and does have some relationship to who are the strongest candidates. And so I would rather be DeSantis right now, when you have his money and his organization, and now any rise is going to create a comeback storyline.
Lowry: Right. Noah wrote about that.
Rothman: I wrote that, yes, because the press has set so absurdly low expectations for him that they’re not hard to meet.
Dougherty: Right, and it’s just like, and not only that, but like, in effect, he’s already surpassed them because . . .
Lowry: He’s survived.
Dougherty: He’s survived, and the polls say that 85 percent of people in Iowa who say they support Trump in the race, say they’re considering supporting DeSantis.
Lowry: Yeah, one way to look at it is, “Did DeSantis live up to the hype?” No, he definitely did not. But has he showed that he can take a punch? Yeah, in the sense that, especially in Iowa, he’s still quite popular and he still has a lot of voters considering him. I still think you guys are high. I would say it’s about 20 percent because in Iowa, even if you get DeSantis or someone else getting some pickup, it could still be a multi-car pile-up that could favor Trump.