Expect the Texas Senate race to become the most stupendously expensive money pit in modern electoral history.
The news speaks for itself. There’s not much to add except to briefly explain the inevitable: Donald Trump has finally unveiled his endorsement in the Texas Senate race, choosing state Attorney General Ken Paxton over incumbent Senator John Cornyn. The runoff is next Tuesday, and Paxton — already more likely than Cornyn to consolidate Wesley Hunt’s remaining protest vote from the first round — has been running narrowly ahead in most polls. Now he has extra help from Trump, who has decided to ditch a loyal Republican senator in favor of the notoriously ethically compromised Paxton.
This is in service to a familiar strategy of Trump’s, as revealed over the years. He knows which way the wind is blowing in the primary base — that curious psychological dynamic whereby his die-hard believers cleave ever closer to him even as (and perhaps precisely because) those not fully onside grow further perplexed and disgusted — and he’s positioning himself downwind of the gust, so he can claim that he summoned it.
The Texas primary is a curious outlier in Trump’s rampage through the state parties during 2026: This was not an easy “pariah incumbent” vs. “chosen challenger” situation, as with Bill Cassidy or Thomas Massie. Trump could have remained silent on this race — both candidates have been strong supporters of the president, although Paxton’s fans will claim otherwise — but he never stays quiet when he has an opportunity to claim credit for victory. And if Trump is desperate for anything at this moment in his flailing administration, it is an opportunity to feel like a victor once again.
I lamented this morning that Trump has commanded the GOP and its donor class to waste unprecedented (literally) amounts of money in 2026 primary races to ensure that his personal picks win and his enemies are defeated. If Paxton wins the primary — as I always expected him to, and as I now consider inevitable — get ready for the Texas Senate race to become the most stupendously expensive money pit in modern electoral history, as the GOP will be forced to furiously play defense and the Democrats spot a once-in-a-generation opportunity to steal a seat.