I wrote today about the challenger Trump should—in theory, at least—fear most, none other than “Middle Class Joe”:
His gruff manner, Catholic faith, Irish ethnic background, union-friendly politics, and upbringing in Delaware via Pennsylvania make him as close as the contemporary national Democratic party gets to a working-class match for the Great Lakes states that Trump stole from it in 2016.
From this juncture, those states again look absolutely crucial. If the rest of the electoral map stays the same, Democrats need to win all three of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to take back the White House. Even if they pick off 2016 red states Arizona and Georgia, they still need Michigan or Pennsylvania to get over 270.
Conversely, it’s hard to see where Trump goes and wins new territory to make up for the loss of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.