Every morning the Washington Post sends out an email called the “Daily 202.” It’s generally excellent, and while I wouldn’t turn to its writers for information on the Tea Party or news about the latest trends in conservative thought, they often have their finger on the pulse of the political establishment. This morning’s headline got my attention — cementing a trend that I’ve been writing about for more than a week. The establishment is moving to Trump, and the Iowa GOP establishment is moving even faster. Why? I’ll let the headline tell you: “Iowa leaders, worried about the credibility of the caucuses, tip the scale for Trump over Cruz.”
Yes, now it’s about saving the precious Iowa caucus — that quadrennial pander-fest where politicians go scampering to Iowa to pledge their allegiance to biofuels and make promises to homeschoolers that they never intend to keep. It’s special interest politics at its worst, but — by golly — Terry Branstad and Chuck Grassley are going to use it help make America great again:
Key establishment figures appear to be subtly tipping the scales toward Trump, partly because they worry about the consequences of a Cruz victory for the Hawkeye State’s legitimacy.
Chuck Grassley, the senior senator, spoke at Trump’s rally in Pella on Saturday. Standing behind a “Trump” podium, he echoed the frontrunner’s campaign slogan and spoke about “once again” making America great. “I want Mr. Trump to know that I appreciate his support for me and most importantly for Iowa being first in the nation, our all-important Iowa caucus,” Grassley told the crowd of about 500.
Then Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Jeff Kaufmann showed up at Trump’s rally on Sunday in Muscatine, saying he will support The Donald “one thousand percent, period” if he wins the caucuses.
Gov. Terry Branstad, who said last week he wants Cruz to lose and whose son is running the anti-Cruz campaign funded by the agriculture industry, even went deer hunting with Trump’s son, Donald Jr.
Wait just a minute. For years the line about Iowa has been that it serves as a natural corrective to elite preferences. Candidates have to go from town to town, talking to groups of voters as small as five or six, and make the case in humble settings that they deserve to lead the free world. In the 2012 cycle, Rick Santorum went from speaking to rooms full of empty chairs to toppling establishment favorite Mitt Romney in the caucuses and almost winning the whole darn primary.
But that’s the old thinking. The new conventional wisdom is that Iowa fails unless it replicates the national polls – so long as the polling leader loves ethanol. The mask has dropped. The rest of the country now should understand what has long been true. The Iowa caucus exists not to give underdogs a shot and introduce humbling direct contact between candidates and voters but rather to preserve Iowa’s outsized influence over public policy and public opinion.
I will say this for Branstad, Grassley, and Kaufmann — I think they’re properly grasping the very high stakes next Monday night. If Trump wins, he will be extremely hard to stop. He’ll go to New Hampshire (where he’s enjoyed double-digit leads for months) with increased momentum, and it’s hard to see that slowing down if goes to South Carolina with two big victories in his pocket. The Iowa caucuses are yuuuuuge this year, and Iowa leaders want them to stay huge. Conservatism be damned.