There is more than one crisis before President Trump as he prepares to address the nation from the Oval Office this evening. There’s the partial government shutdown. There are the growing numbers of families and unaccompanied minors from the Northern Triangle of Central America arriving at the southern border. And there is Trump’s political dilemma. Parts of his 2016 coalition are moving away from him, and it’s not clear that immigration and the border wall will be the issues that bring them back.
I’m talking about Independent voters, who are often forgotten in this period of base-mobilization politics. Independents helped win Trump the presidency and deliver control of Congress to the GOP in 2016. They voted for Trump over Hillary Clinton by a four-percentage-point margin, and for GOP House candidates over Democrats by a six-percentage-point margin. The numbers may seem small, but in a close race like the last presidential election, they counted for a lot.
Now, Independents have abandoned the president. They backed Democrats by 12 percentage points in 2018 — an 18-percentage-point swing over two years — and are the reason Trump’s job approval fluctuates between the low-to-mid-40s. He’s at 36 percent approval among Independents in the latest Reuters-Ipsos poll and at 39 percent in the latest Economist-YouGov survey. Overall, his approval is at 41 percent and 43 percent, respectively.
The YouGov poll, released at the beginning of the year, showed Independent voters split on the question of a border wall, with slightly more opposed than in favor. It also showed that almost a fifth of Independents — 18 percent — aren’t sure what to think. That suggests that Independents may be persuadable and react favorably to tonight’s prime-time speech. They are the audience to whom Trump should appeal if he wants to increase the pressure on Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer.
Still, presidential orations rarely move public opinion. And public opinion today is against the wall and against the shutdown. To remind Independents why they voted for him, Trump might want to emphasize the job market and address health care. Instead, he’s in the position of rallying his base behind a major campaign promise. He needs Republican support to insulate him from impeachment and a potential primary challenge. But he also needs Independents. They will decide whether 2020 is more like 2016 — or more like 2018.