Uncommitted voters seem to hold two opposing outlooks: Trump is a victim of political persecution, and whatever he’s accused of, he probably did it.
In surveys of uncommitted voters ahead of Donald Trump’s criminal trials, persuadable voters on the margins of the electorate seem convinced of two seemingly contradictory assertions. First, the former president’s pursuers are obsessed in their manic effort to charge Trump with something — anything — that might stick. That’s as true of Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg’s prosecution as it is of Georgia prosecutor Fani Willis and even the Justice Department special counsel, Jack Smith; the timing is too conspicuous, their doggedness too aggressive. These voters seem persuaded that Trump is a victim of political persecution. And yet, that belief exists concomitantly with a second widespread conviction among uncommitted voters: Whatever Trump is accused of, he probably did it.
To partisans on either side of the aisle, these two outlooks would seem to be mutually exclusive. On that, there’s reason to believe the partisans are right. With the opening of the first of Trump’s criminal trials — perhaps his only criminal trial before November’s elections — the political effect of these proceedings looms large. If the polling is to be believed, the stakes for both Trump and his prosecutors are extremely high.
For the most part, the polls have been consistent. Voters across the political spectrum believe that, regardless of their view on the legitimacy of the charges against Trump, it’s a bridge too far to pull the lever for a convicted felon. At least, that’s what they’re willing to tell pollsters.
At the end of January, a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll found that 53 percent of voters in seven key swing states would refuse to vote for Trump if a jury found him guilty of the charges against him (the poll declined to specify which charges).
On the Bragg prosecution specifically, a March Ipsos poll sponsored by Politico showed that a majority of independent voters and even 14 percent of Republicans joined the vast majority of Democrats in their view that Trump was “guilty of the alleged crimes” of which he’s accused. If convicted, that poll showed that 36 percent of independents and 9 percent of Republicans would rethink their support for the former president in November.
Just last week, another Ipsos poll via Reuters revealed that 64 percent of registered voters described the charges Bragg brought against Trump as at least “somewhat serious” — a figure that includes nearly 40 percent of Republicans and two-thirds of independents. “Close to a third of Republicans — and close to two-thirds of independents — in the poll said it was believable that Trump falsified business records and committed fraud,” Reuters reported.
It may be safe to attribute some of these responses to social-desirability bias. Most well-adjusted voters will experience at least a little discomfort when confessing their intent to elevate a convicted felon to the presidency. But we cannot chalk all these responses up to dishonesty. Surely, some of these voters really mean it. But persuasibility works both ways. If the Manhattan prosecutors cannot prove to a jury’s satisfaction the crime that Trump’s misdemeanor falsification of business records was allegedly designed to further, uncommitted voters who are already inclined to mistrust Trump’s prosecutors will be rightly convinced of the wisdom of their suspicion. At that point, those voters will be persuadable no more — they will have been persuaded.
The stakes are high for both Trump and his pursuers. Whatever the outcome of Trump’s Manhattan trial, it will matter.