Yesterday I suggested that Donald Trump could win a double victory in New Hampshire. I was wrong. Tonight he won three clear victories.
First and most obviously, he didn’t just win the popular vote, he more than doubled his closest competitor. The gap was so large that it was a bit pathetic watching John Kasich claim a moral victory. Kasich practically moved to New Hampshire, banked everything on the outcome, and got less than half Trump’s votes — even though Trump (compared to his rivals) campaigned far less in the state.
Second, the also-rans were bunched up in a confused muddle of mediocrity, and that can only benefit Trump. As of 11:00 pm, the next four candidates have between 10 and 16 percent of the vote, leaving them with not enough votes to matter but enough votes to likely give each one reason to go forward. If his third place position holds, Ted Cruz has at least some reason to be happy, but it’s not like he’s sailing into South Carolina with the wind at his back. Consequently, the anti-Trump vote will remain fragmented.
Third — and this is what I missed — Trump is right now over-performing versus the RealClearPolitics polling average, thus dealing a blow both to the “Trump people won’t turn out” and the “Trump as Buchanan” theories. He pushed through the Buchanan vote ceiling and decisively won in a high-turnout primary. All of this bodes well for him as his campaign moves South, where he’s polled strongly virtually from the start.
In the South, voters traditionally like conservatives and they like populists, so the table looks set for an epic clash between Trump and Cruz in South Carolina — with Trump holding the early edge. The only thing that could shake that dynamic is if one or more of the “establishment lane” candidates decides to give up their own presidential dream to stop Trump. But who will go first?