In the last few days, a narrative that is presumably designed to reassure Democrats has taken hold: Sure, the Republicans will likely win the House in the 2022 midterm elections, but it won’t be gargantuan 40-seat swing like we saw in 1994 and 2010. Oftentimes, analysts credit Democratic gerrymandering. “Democrats appear to have won the gerrymandering battle, drawing up at least a few more favorable districts than Republicans. Let’s be clear, a Republican House majority is still very likely. But despite all of Biden’s problems, the Democrat maps might prevent a big majority.”
(I’m so old, I can remember when Republican gerrymandering was considered the next great threat to democracy.)
But the other factor limiting GOP gains is that right now, the House of Representatives has 209 Republicans and 221 Democrats. (There are five seats that are vacant.) If a plane flying in a dozen members from California is delayed, Democrats don’t have a majority. It is tougher for Republicans to run up a gargantuan gain in seats this cycle, because they’ve already picked most of the low-hanging fruit. Sure, gerrymandering is protecting some Democratic seats, but there were fewer Democratic seats to protect when the cycle began.
In 1994, Republicans started the cycle with just 176 seats. In 2010, Republicans started the cycle with just 179 seats. When Bill Clinton and Barack Obama won, they won with considerable coattails – Democrats gained 9 seats in 1992 and Democrats gained 21 seats in 2008. When a president wins with big coattails, his party usually wins at least a couple seats they would never win under normal political circumstances. The president’s party is effectively renting that seat for a cycle. When there isn’t a president on the ballot bringing out the party’s low-intensity voters, those districts return to their usual partisan balance, and the opposition party can score some big wins.
Joe Biden had no coattails in 2020 – Republicans gained 14 seats in the House that year.
A longtime GOP consultant pointed out to me today that the GOP House pickups in 2010 – and to a lesser extent, 2014 — were often in what would become Trump-friendly country a few years later. Those cycles marked the end of the somewhat culturally-conservative House Democrats who had, in past years, been able to argue they were different from other Democrats in Washington – Earl Pomeroy in North Dakota, Bob Etheridge in North Carolina, Ike Skelton in Missouri, Allen Boyd in Florida, Nick Rahall in West Virginia, John Barrow in Georgia. These red states were getting redder, and it shifted from difficult to impossible to hang on as a Democrat in these usually-rural, usually-Midwestern or Southern districts. As much as the Tea Party Republicans and Trump Republicans seemed different, a common thread of populist, anti-elite, pro-gun, pro-life, flag-waving attitudes remained consistent. And, perhaps, was growing wariness of corporate America, wondering if it was seeking out special favors from Washington and benefiting from an uneven playing field.
For what it’s worth, Rep. Michael McCaul of Texas is still predicting a 40-seat pickup. But there’s just the undeniable fact that compared to 1994 or 2010, there are just fewer House Democrats around for Republicans to beat.