The Corner

What Primary Turnout Tells You about the General Election

Not much.

Sean Trende looked into this question in 2012, and it’s worth considering his analysis now, when some people are taking increased Republican turnout in the primaries as a bullish indicator for the fall. His conclusion: “I don’t think there’s much evidence that high turnout in presidential primaries produces a good result in the general election.”

Ramesh Ponnuru — Ramesh Ponnuru is a senior editor for National Review, a columnist for Bloomberg View, a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and a senior fellow at the National Review Institute.

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