Towards the end of June, I called Pennsylvania GOP Senate nominee Mehmet Oz “the wildly underperforming Ford Pinto of Republican Senate candidates,” a line that Frank Bruni of the New York Times quoted this weekend.
When you write off a candidate in midsummer, there’s always a chance that you’re rendering a verdict too early, and that either the candidate, his campaign, or fate has some late twist that will change the dynamic.
But the GOP primary was May 17, and Dave McCormick conceded to Oz on June 6. Democratic Senate nominee John Fetterman suffered his stroke on May 13 and still hasn’t returned to the campaign trail on a regular basis. Oz effectively had the state to himself for almost three months . . . and he’s gained no ground during that time. (Oddly, the Oz campaign ran no television ads from late May to late July.)
And the latest Fox News survey finds Fetterman leading Oz, 47 percent to 36 percent, and only 35 percent of voters have a favorable opinion about Oz, while 55 percent feel unfavorably toward him. No poll has put Oz any closer than six percentage points behind.
Oz just looks like a lemon of a candidate. (I would use the metaphor of a particular flightless bird, but people would think I’m mocking Oz’s country of origin, which isn’t really his problem.) Oz offers all of Trump’s weaknesses (inexperienced celebrity dilettante, limited roots in the state) without any of Trump’s strengths; the typical Trump voter isn’t impressed by Oz being Oprah’s favorite doctor or hosting a health-focused daytime talk show, nor his old support for abortion and gun control. Oz is too Trumpy to win the suburban soccer moms in Bucks County, but not Trumpy enough for blue-collar southwestern Pennsylvania.
Oz won the primary by the skin of his teeth; it is extremely difficult to imagine Oz winning a GOP primary without the endorsement of Donald Trump. Now, there’s a report that Trump is fuming about how badly Oz is doing, and that he’s complaining to Sean Hannity; allegedly, Hannity encouraged Trump to endorse Oz. (Great, now Trump realizes how hard it is to elect Oz.)
Dave McCormick wouldn’t have been a slam-dunk to beat Fetterman; no doubt the Democrat would have attacked McCormick for his time as a hedge-fund CEO. But McCormick likely wouldn’t have started with such high unfavorable numbers, and it’s hard to see a self-financing multimillionaire running no ads for most of the summer. McCormick likely would have made this a hard-fought, tight race. Right now, not only does it look like Democrats will pick up the Senate seat of the retiring Pat Toomey, it looks like they won’t even have to sweat it much.