The Corner

White House

Early Alarm Bell for Democrats

President Donald Trump speaks to reporters at the White House, September 9, 2019. (Erin Scott/Reuters)

A headline in The Hill trumpets a new Hill-Harris poll as follows: “Poll: Overwhelming Majority of Black Voters Back Any Democrat Over Trump.”

The headline is accurate — strictly speaking — but misleading. Although 85 percent support for any Democrat over Trump may be characterized as “overwhelming,” that percentage is at the low end of the support Democratic presidential candidates typically have received from blacks over the last three decades. Consider the following data from the Roper Center:

1988: Dukakis 89  Bush 10

1992: Clinton 83  Bush 10

1996: Clinton 84  Dole 10

2000: Gore 90  Bush 9

2004: Kerry 88  Bush 11

2008: Obama 95  McCain 4

2012: Obama 93  Romney 6

2016: Clinton 89  Trump 8

It’s conceivable that the current 85 percent support for the Democratic candidate may increase once the Democrats settle on a nominee ( of course, it could also decrease). Nonetheless, Trump’s 15 percent support among black voters is astonishing given the relentless assertions by Democrats and the mainstream media (but I repeat myself) over the last three years that Trump is a racist and white supremacist. Indeed, before the incessant accusations of racism began, Trump received 8 percent of the black vote, yet despite that barrage, his black support has nearly doubled. Most of the increase appears to come from black males, 32 percent of whom prefer him over any Democratic candidate. That’s a major opportunity for Trump, and a troubling prospect for Democrats.

Peter Kirsanow — Peter N. Kirsanow is an attorney and a member of the United States Commission on Civil Rights.

Most Popular

White House

More Evidence the Guardrails Are Gone

At the end of last month, just as the news of the Ukraine scandal started dominating the news cycle, I argued that we're seeing evidence that the guardrails that staff had placed around Donald Trump's worst instincts were in the process of breaking down. When Trump's staff was at its best, it was possible to draw ... Read More
Politics & Policy

Elizabeth Warren Is Not Honest

If you want to run for office, political consultants will hammer away at one point: Tell stories. People respond to stories. We’ve been a story-telling species since our fur-clad ancestors gathered around campfires. Don’t cite statistics. No one can remember statistics. Make it human. Make it relatable. ... Read More
National Review

Farewell

Today is my last day at National Review. It's an incredibly bittersweet moment. While I've only worked full-time since May, 2015, I've contributed posts and pieces for over fifteen years. NR was the first national platform to publish my work, and now -- thousands of posts and more than a million words later -- I ... Read More
Economy & Business

Andrew Yang, Snake Oil Salesman

Andrew Yang, the tech entrepreneur and gadfly, has definitely cleared the bar for a successful cause candidate. Not only has he exceeded expectations for his polling and fundraising, not only has he developed a cult following, not only has he got people talking about his signature idea, the universal basic ... Read More
World

Is America Becoming Sinicized?

A little over 40 years ago, Chinese Communist strongman and reformer Deng Xiaoping began 15 years of sweeping economic reforms. They were designed to end the disastrous, even murderous planned economy of Mao Zedong, who died in 1976. The results of Deng’s revolution astonished the world. In four decades, ... Read More