The Corner

White House

Early Alarm Bell for Democrats

President Donald Trump speaks to reporters at the White House, September 9, 2019. (Erin Scott/Reuters)

A headline in The Hill trumpets a new Hill-Harris poll as follows: “Poll: Overwhelming Majority of Black Voters Back Any Democrat Over Trump.”

The headline is accurate — strictly speaking — but misleading. Although 85 percent support for any Democrat over Trump may be characterized as “overwhelming,” that percentage is at the low end of the support Democratic presidential candidates typically have received from blacks over the last three decades. Consider the following data from the Roper Center:

1988: Dukakis 89  Bush 10

1992: Clinton 83  Bush 10

1996: Clinton 84  Dole 10

2000: Gore 90  Bush 9

2004: Kerry 88  Bush 11

2008: Obama 95  McCain 4

2012: Obama 93  Romney 6

2016: Clinton 89  Trump 8

It’s conceivable that the current 85 percent support for the Democratic candidate may increase once the Democrats settle on a nominee ( of course, it could also decrease). Nonetheless, Trump’s 15 percent support among black voters is astonishing given the relentless assertions by Democrats and the mainstream media (but I repeat myself) over the last three years that Trump is a racist and white supremacist. Indeed, before the incessant accusations of racism began, Trump received 8 percent of the black vote, yet despite that barrage, his black support has nearly doubled. Most of the increase appears to come from black males, 32 percent of whom prefer him over any Democratic candidate. That’s a major opportunity for Trump, and a troubling prospect for Democrats.


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