A headline in The Hill trumpets a new Hill-Harris poll as follows: “Poll: Overwhelming Majority of Black Voters Back Any Democrat Over Trump.”
The headline is accurate — strictly speaking — but misleading. Although 85 percent support for any Democrat over Trump may be characterized as “overwhelming,” that percentage is at the low end of the support Democratic presidential candidates typically have received from blacks over the last three decades. Consider the following data from the Roper Center:
1988: Dukakis 89 Bush 10
1992: Clinton 83 Bush 10
1996: Clinton 84 Dole 10
2000: Gore 90 Bush 9
2004: Kerry 88 Bush 11
2008: Obama 95 McCain 4
2012: Obama 93 Romney 6
2016: Clinton 89 Trump 8
It’s conceivable that the current 85 percent support for the Democratic candidate may increase once the Democrats settle on a nominee ( of course, it could also decrease). Nonetheless, Trump’s 15 percent support among black voters is astonishing given the relentless assertions by Democrats and the mainstream media (but I repeat myself) over the last three years that Trump is a racist and white supremacist. Indeed, before the incessant accusations of racism began, Trump received 8 percent of the black vote, yet despite that barrage, his black support has nearly doubled. Most of the increase appears to come from black males, 32 percent of whom prefer him over any Democratic candidate. That’s a major opportunity for Trump, and a troubling prospect for Democrats.