Because it still looks like a Trump vs. Biden rematch is the most likely scenario, the question is whether the 2024 political environment will be more like that of 2020, or that of 2016. Democrats will believe, or try to convince themselves, that it’s more like last cycle — the same two guys, the same two strengths and weaknesses, in an environment without an ongoing pandemic.
Or… it’s a Democratic incumbent again, Trump represents change again, and the aging Biden just isn’t the same guy he was in the 2020 cycle. One more piece of evidence for that Trump-friendly scenario comes our way from NBC News:
President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign is expanding its fundraising strategy to try to boost contributions in the coming weeks and over the longer term, as officials acknowledge that small-dollar donations have been slower to materialize, according to three campaign officials and two other people familiar with the matter.
The new phase coincides with campaign officials’ privately downplaying expectations for how much the re-election effort will raise during the current fundraising quarter, which ends Sept. 30, according to the sources.
That’s a rattle in the engine of the Biden campaign, as is the fact that the campaign is spending money on ads already, in early autumn 2023:
…the Biden campaign has decided to buck precedent by launching a major advertising buy sooner than Barack Obama or Donald Trump, the last two presidents to run for reelection.
It’s a major investment for a still-growing campaign. Through the end of June, Biden’s campaign organization had raised less than $23 million, all in checks no larger than $3,300. The same account is now shouldering the costs of the first weeks of a $25 million, 16-week television and digital campaign, overwhelmingly aimed at the swing-state voters that will decide the election. A person involved — who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly on internal discussions — said it remains uncertain whether the campaign will foot the entire bill through December, or whether the deeper pockets of the Democratic National Committee and state parties, which raised nearly $50 million more through the end of June, begin to spend as well.
Now, when all is said and done in the 2024 presidential election, Joe Biden’s reelection campaign is going to have a ton of money. He’s the incumbent president, and incumbents always have a ton of money. If Biden doesn’t win reelection, it probably won’t be because Biden didn’t raise enough money, nor is the decision to advertise at this early date likely to make or break the reelection effort.
But this report of subpar fundraising may well be an indicator that Democrats just aren’t that enthusiastic about him or the prospect of another four years. That most recent CNN poll found 67 percent of Democrats and Democratic leaning voters wished the party would nominate someone other than Biden; we shouldn’t be surprised that the same lack of enthusiasm would show up in Biden’s fundraising numbers.