The Corner

Early Thoughts On Bin Laden’s Message

Osama bin Laden has sent the U.S. and the West his options for “Future Jihad.” He is giving notice to the American people. We will obviously be analyzing all of that. But why is he doing this now and what does he expect as a reaction? Here’s a quick look at some of the premises of his speech.

He starts with

وأحوالنا بفضل الله من حسن إلى أحسن وأحوالكم على العكس من ذلك

“Our situation, thanks to Allah, is better than yours.” This, by itself, is very indicative. Psychologically, you can see the insistence on projecting a strong al Qaeda both to his members and to the Western public.

Then he says:

ولكن استنهض همتي للحديث عن مغالطات رئيسكم بوش المتكررة في تعليقه على نتائج استطلاعات الرأي عندكم والتي أفادت أن الغالبية العظمي منكم يرغبون بسحب القوات الأميركية من العراق، ولكنه اعترض على هذه الرغبة وقال إن سحب القوات يعطي رسالة خاطئة للخصوم وإنه من الأفضل أن نقاتلهم على أرضهم خيرا من أن يقاتلونا على أرضنا

Your polls indicate that your people want a withdrawal from Iraq, but your president objected as this would constitute a wrong message to the foes. And it is best that we fight them (Americans) on their land than on ours.”

Bin Laden is attempting to reverse this equation.

Then he says:

ولقد ظهر مؤخرا بالوثائق أن جزار الحرية في العالم كان قد عزم على قصف المكاتب الرئيسية لفضائية الجزيرة في دولة قطر بعد أن قصف مقرها في كابل وبغداد وهي على علاتها صنيعة صنائعكم هناك.

[You don’t have the full truth because your president is suppressing media.] “He had plans to shell al Jazeera”

This sentence, if anything, shows the place al Jazeera holds in al Qaeda’s media outreach.

Then he says:

وإعلان هذه الهزيمة والعمل على إخراجها إنما هو مسألة وقت ترتبط إلى حد ما بوعي الشعب الأميركي بحجم هذه المأساة، وإن العقلاء يعلمون أن بوش لا يملك خطة لتحقيق نصره المزعوم في

العراق

“This defeat in Iraq will be known when the American people will be made aware of it.” This indicates to me that al Qaeda is concerned about the rising awareness of the American public of the threat of terrorism.

Then he states:

ومن جهة أخرى استطاع المجاهدون بفضل الله أن يخترقوا جميع الإجراءات الأمنية التي تتخذها دول التحالف الظالمة مرة بعد أخرى والدليل على ذلك ما رايتم من تفجيرات في أهم عواصم الدول الأوروبية في هذا التحالف العدواني، وأما تأخر وقوع عمليات مشابهة في أميركا لم يكن بسبب تعذر اختراق إجراءاتكم الأمنية فالعمليات تحت الإعداد وسترونها في عقر داركم حال الانتهاء منها بإذن الله.

“The jihadists were able to penetrate all security measures of the Coalition, including in Europe. The fact that operations in the U.S. are late, means only that it is coming, and you will see it inside your country (U.S.).” This indicates that al Qaeda is determined to wage operations in America, but of a different nature. As I argue in my book, Future Jihad, it is about insuring the proper numbers of jihadists.

He states:

هو أنه من الأفضل أن لا نقاتل المسلمين على أرضهم ولا يقاتلونا على أرضنا ولا مانع لدينا من إجابتكم إلى هدنة طويلة الأمد بشروط عادلة نفي بها فنحن أمة حرم الله علينا الغدر والكذب، لينعم في هذه الهدنة الطرفان بالأمن والاستقرار ولنبني العراق وأفغانستان اللتين دمرتهما الحرب

وبعد ذلك سأعلن أن التدخل الأميركي في دول العالم قد انتهى وبشكل نهائي.

Bin Laden proposes a “long term truce” with several conditions, all of which demand the U.S. to implement withdrawals and recognition of defeat.

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