The Corner

The Election

I’m pretty bad at predicting elections, but then again, so is most everyone else. I’m old enough to remember a whole series of sure-fire-winners-who-weren’t, from Dewey to Carter (vs Reagan) to Mondale (vs Reagan again) to Gore and Kerry. Frankly, I find most of the chatter about “the meaning of the polls” to be pretty silly. And it distracts us from the very serious problems we face, to which we should be devoting the bulk of our energies. Iran seems to be very very close to having enough enriched uranium to make some new bombs (here are the data), and unless I’m sadly mistaken, the Russians are setting up some kind of action against Ukraine. 

The global crisis — keep saying ‘global’ — is as murky and its consequences as unpredictable as any I’ve ever seen. I don’t remember reading much here about the closure of the Russian stock market (which seems to me to mean that your shares are worthless), but it may prefigure similar sorts of desperate measures in Venezuela and Iran (which is probably good news). Then again, it may spur irrational leaders to act outside their own borders in order to shore up their support at home. Yes, it’s an old story, but it’s very important, so how come so much energy is wasted on debating whether or not McCain should be talking about Ayers?

I doubt McCain or Obama reads the Corner, so I think all the smart advice offered to them here are wasted efforts at best.  I have no idea who is going to win on November 4th, but one of the smartest poll watchers around, Lorie Byrd, reminds us that it’s still very close:

McCain is narrowing the gap in the polls. They are still going back and forth and are extremely volatile and as DJ constantly reminds us, many of them are not worth a hoot anyway, but there is evidence that they are beginning to close. There is now a 3 point lead for Obama in the Gallup traditional poll of likely voters. If McCain does well tonight they will continue to tighten and the state polls will eventually follow. The last thing Republicans should be doing now is giving up or wallowing in despair. That is what those on the left want and that is what they will attempt to do with polls showing Obama with a large lead. Democrats still hold a big advantage, but this is far from over and things are slowly turning back McCain’s way. McCain likes to come from behind. He has done it before and I think he can do it again if he plays things smart. After tonight we will know whether or not that is what he is going to do.

That sounds about right. However, there has been at least one welcome result of the commentariat’s belief that Obama is now a cinch for the presidency: we get to see the opportunists signing up for the ride on the bandwagon. 

No honorable defeat for them, oh no no no. Instant conversion is more like it.

Maybe we’ll remember their names next time?

Michael Ledeen — Michael Ledeen is an American historian, philosopher, foreign-policy analyst, and writer. He is a former consultant to the National Security Council, the Department of State, and the Department of Defense. ...

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