The Corner


The Rule of 13

In 2014, Tim Groseclose, a professor of economics at George Mason University, looked over the 2010 and 2012 elections for the House and Senate and found that no candidate won if his district or state had gone for the other party’s presidential candidate by 13 points or more. The results held in 2014 and 2016 as well.

If his “rule of 13” holds up, then Republicans should do well in the Senate races–holding Tennessee and picking up Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, and West Virginia. Even if they lose Arizona and Nevada, they would net three new votes. They have a chance to gain a seat in Florida, too.

In Montana and West Virginia, though, it would take an upset for the rule to hold up.

Ramesh Ponnuru — Ramesh Ponnuru is a senior editor for National Review, a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion, a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and a senior fellow at the National Review Institute.

Most Popular

Politics & Policy

Basta La Vista, Baby

Dear Reader (And especially Martha McSally’s dog), As I often note, I increasingly tend to see the political scene as a scripted reality show in which the writers don’t flesh out the dialogue so much as move characters into weird, wacky, confrontational, or embarrassing positions. It’s a lot like The ... Read More

The Brexit Crisis

After what seem like years of a phony war, British and European Union negotiators finally agreed on the terms of Britain’s departure from the EU earlier this week, and Theresa May announced it in the House of Commons. The deal covers more than 500 pages of legal and bureaucratic prose, and few but the ... Read More

Friends of Elmer

Do you know what scares an American outdoorsman more than a grizzly bear? Twitter. In the late summer and early autumn, the hunting world had its eyes on the courts: The Trump administration had issued new guidance that would permit the hunting of brown bears (popularly known as grizzly bears), including in ... Read More