The Corner

Re: The Map Follows the National Polls, Cont.

To follow up on Rich’s point that, as Trump’s numbers rise nationally, the picture of how he’d win the states he needs becomes clearer, too, I recommend Nate Silver’s piece from last year about how there’s likely no such thing as a ”blue wall” in the Electoral College.

“When commentators talk about the Democrats’ ‘blue wall,’ all they’re really pointing out is that Democrats have had a pretty good run in presidential elections lately,” he explains. People talked about how Republicans had a lock on the Electoral College going into 1992, as well, simply because Republicans had had a good run of presidential elections before that.

If Romney instead of Obama had won the 2012 election by 3.9 percentage points, according to Silver’s number-crunching, a whole lot of states would have tipped into his basket, including Minnesota and Pennsylvania.

Patrick Brennan was a senior communications official at the Department of Health and Human Services during the Trump administration and is former opinion editor of National Review Online.


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