Going into Election Day, Republicans controlled 57 of the nation’s 98 partisan legislative chambers (Nebraska’s is nonpartisan and unicameral). They had high hopes of expanding their dominance in state capitals, particularly playing hard to claim the state senates in Nevada, Maine, Colorado, Oregon, and Iowa and the state houses in New Hampshire, Colorado, West Virginia, New Mexico, Minnesota, and Kentucky. Democrats, for their part, thought they had a shot at breaking up GOP-dissident Dem coalitions in the New York Senate and Washington Senate while recovering lost ground in Arkansas, Iowa, Wisconsin, and elsewhere.
It wasn’t just the candidates and party caucuses that invested heavily in these legislative contests. On the left, teacher unions, the rest of organized labor, environmental groups, and the other usual suspects devoted significant money and effort, particularly in states that also had marquee races for U.S. Senate and governor. Groups on the right, ranging from low-tax and pro-business organizations to the pro-life and school-choice movements, did the same, although in most cases they appear to have been outspent.
As it turned out, the Republicans and conservatives appear to have spent more wisely while benefiting from a favorable issue environment. Out of eleven Democratic or tied chambers that the GOP heavily targeted in 2014, it has at this writing picked up 6 of them: the senates in Maine and Nevada and the houses in New Hampshire, West Virginia, New Mexico, and Minnesota. Moreover, the Republicans also won an actual rather than coalition majority in the New York Senate and picked up additional chambers that weren’t as widely seen as opportunities this year, such as the Nevada house. There are still races to be called in Colorado and elsewhere, so a final tally is not yet possible. But at the moment it looks like the GOP’s amazing success this year at the top of the ticket, including an expansion of their edge in governorships from 29–21 to at least 31–19, was accompanied by similar success down the ballot. It’s worth noting also that conservatives won all of the nation’s big fiscal-policy referenda this year, beating a gas-tax hike in Massachusetts and business-tax hike in Nevada, while winning tax limitations in Tennessee, Georgia, and Wisconsin.