The Corner

Politics & Policy

Emerson Poll Shows Bush Surging in N.H.

Portsmouth, N.H. – The latest batch of New Hampshire polling, released by Emerson College just after 6 p.m. local time, had Jeb Bush’s campaign bus blasting the school’s fight song on its way here for tonight’s rally, according to communications director Tim Miller:

Of course, this is just one survey of many. And Emerson, a student-run organization, is not considered an authoritative, first-rate polling outfit.

Still, it’s the first non-partisan public poll in weeks to show Bush in second place. And it feeds into a perception on the ground here that Bush is mounting a last-minute surge in New Hampshire — and that he, more than anyone else, might be the chief beneficiary of Marco Rubio’s stumble in Saturday night’s debate.

Indeed, with the survey in the field from Thursday through Sunday, Emerson wrote of the candidates’ movement before and after the debate: “Overall, Bush trended upward, from 12% on Thursday to 19% on Saturday and 21% on Sunday. His gain seemed to be at Rubio’s expense. Rubio fell from a high of 17% on Friday to single digits on Sunday.”

A final note: Emerson came the closest of any poll to nailing the Iowa caucus results last Monday. Unlike most reputable polls that showed Donald Trump leading Ted Cruz by five points or more, and Rubio stuck somewhere in the mid-teens, Emerson’s final survey showed Trump and Cruz neck-and-neck, 27 percent to 26 percent, and Rubio right behind them at 22 percent. (Cruz won with 28 percent, followed by Trump at 24 percent and Rubio at 23 percent. Emerson’s was the only poll of the entire primary season to peg Rubio north of 20 percent.)

Most Popular



For your amusement, I hope, I’ve done a Jaywalking episode. It begins with a bit of the overture to Semiramide -- a Rossini opera I reviewed from the Met last week. Then I get into Russia and, after a while, China. The Marriott company fired an employee for “liking” a tweet by a Tibetan independence group. ... Read More

Viva l’Italia?

Italy has just had elections, with very interesting results. I wanted to talk with Alberto Mingardi, which I have. He is one of the leading classical liberals in Italy -- the director general of the Bruno Leoni Institute, in Milan. (Mingardi himself is Milanese.) He is also an authority in arts and letters. In ... Read More

Putin and the Cult of Leadership

On Sunday, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin won an unsurprising reelection-campaign victory against Communist Party candidate Pavel Grudinin, by a margin of 76.7 percent to 11.8 percent. The results were unsurprising because Putin is a tyrant who murders or imprisons political rivals, and who isn’t afraid to use ... Read More

Trump and Brexit Derangement Syndrome

I am not one of those Brexiteers who believe that Brexit and Trumpism are essentially the same phenomenon in two different countries. To be sure, they both draw on some of the same political trends, notably a distrust of elites and an upsurge of popular anger over evident failures of public policy such as illegal ... Read More