Good news in the Missouri Senate race, where Democrats are banking on disgraced former governor Eric Greitens winning the Republican nomination to save them. Greitens, despite tepid fundraising and up-and-down polling in a three-way race, has remained stubbornly within striking distance or, at times, in the lead. Now, three recent polls in the race all show state attorney general Eric Schmitt pulling ahead.
- Trafalgar has Schmitt at 26.5 percent, congresswoman Vicky Hartzler at 24.4 percent, Greitens at 20.2 percent, congressman Billy Long at 6.7 percent, 6.6 percent with minor candidates (Mark McCloskey and Dave Schatz), and 15.6 percent undecided.
- Emerson has Schmitt at 33 percent, Hartzler at 21 percent, Greitens at 16 percent, Long at 5 percent, 8 percent for minor candidates, and 17 percent undecided. Sixty-one percent have an unfavorable view of Greitens, double the unfavorables for Schmitt and nearly double those of Hartzler.
- When undecideds are pushed to choose, Emerson shows the race at Schmitt 39 percent, Hartzler 25 percent, Greitens 18 percent, Long 7 percent, and 11 percent for the minor candidates. In other words, a third of independents would pick Schmitt if they had to decide today, but barely more than one in nine would choose Greitens.
- Republican pollster Remington’s Missouri Scout poll has Schmitt at 32 percent, Hartzler at 25 percent, Greitens at 18 percent, Long at 8 percent, and 7 percent with the minor candidates, with 10 percent undecided.
Collective action problems remain: Hartzler remains committed to the race, and for reasons that mystify me, so is Billy Long, who has no chance. With a significant undecided bloc, Greitens can’t be counted out quite yet, but Election Day is a week away, and Schmitt now leads Greitens outside the margin of error in Trafalgar and by double digits in the other two polls, with sky-high unfavorables and pulling a paltry share of undecideds when pushed by Emerson. That is not a recipe for success.