A new survey finds Robert F. Kennedy at just 10 percent in the New Hampshire Democratic primary.
Robert F. Kennedy remains a niche candidate in the Democratic presidential primary. In national polls, Kennedy is still in the mid teens.
Because New Hampshire is likely to hold its primary in violation of the rules set by the Democratic National Committee, President Biden is not expected to compete in that primary unless some deal is worked out. Biden’s name may not appear on the ballot, which for a while looked like a way for Kennedy to win the first primary.
But according to a new University of New Hampshire survey, that may not add up to much. According to the survey, if Biden’s name appears on the ballot, 70 percent of likely Democratic primary voters support Biden, 10 percent support Kennedy, 4 percent support Marianne Williamson, 6 percent said they support another candidate, and 10 percent said they weren’t sure.
The survey asked 520 Biden supporters what they would do if Biden’s name did not appear on the ballot. Nearly two-thirds (65 percent) said they would cast a write-in ballot for Biden, while just 3 percent would vote for Kennedy, and 2 percent said they would vote for Williamson. Seven percent said they would vote for someone else, 5 percent would not vote, and 18 percent weren’t sure what they would do.
If the 65 percent of Biden supporters in this survey cast write-in ballots for Biden, he would finish with 45.5 percent of the vote — well ahead of Kennedy and Williamson. In other words, at least for now, Kennedy is on pace to lose to Joe Biden when Biden is a write-in candidate.
The survey asked respondents what one word they would use to describe each of the Democratic candidates. The most common responses for Biden were “old,” “steady,” “competent,” “experienced,” “honest,” and “leader.” (Remember, these are respondents who indicated that they would be voting in the Democratic primary.) The responses for Kennedy and Williamson were much more negative. The most common responses for Kennedy were “crazy,” “dangerous,” “insane,” “conspiracy,” and “unknown.” The most common responses for Williamson were “unknown,” “crazy,” “unqualified,” “who?,” and “kooky.”
Not only are New Hampshire Democrats unlikely to vote for Kennedy, a majority of them appear to actively dislike him.
A little while ago, I asked why Kennedy was running in the Democratic primary when he has many more supporters among independents and Republicans, and whether he might find it more worthwhile to run as an independent. After all, right now he’s polling strongest among self-identified Republicans, and he’s competing in a contest where registered Republicans cannot participate.
A couple of RFK fans contended that Kennedy was getting attention solely because he’s a threat to Biden, and that the media would lose interest if Kennedy ran as an independent. But as the numbers above suggest, RFK isn’t much of a threat to Biden at all.