Two bad inflation reports in the two months after the Democrats passed the so-called Inflation Reduction Act, at a time when 82 percent of U.S. adults consider inflation to be either an “extremely important” or “very important” issue, add up to about as good a political environment as Republicans could possibly expect. Inflation consistently polls as voters’ top priority. As I noted in today’s Morning Jolt, Democrats’ problems on the issue are exacerbated by the fact that President Biden said three times, in a bit more than a year, that the problem would go away soon. Biden said in July 2021 that inflation was going to be temporary, and he declared in December that inflation had peaked, and he said in February that it would “taper off.”
And with the midterm election now less than a month away, just about every big race will have a debate in the coming days or weeks. (Not quite all of them. In Arizona’s governor’s race, Democrat Katie Hobbs refused to debate Republican Kari Lake, so the local PBS station decided to give her an interview instead. In Nevada, Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto and her Republican challenger, Adam Laxalt, have yet to agree to a debate; Laxalt says he has agreed to two, but Cortez Masto won’t concur.)
Expect Republicans to hammer Democrats on inflation early and often in these debates.
Wisconsin Republican senator Ron Johnson and his Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes will meet for their second debate tonight. Tomorrow night is the only scheduled debate between Georgia Democratic senator Raphael Warnock and his Republican challenger, Herschel Walker — the same night as a debate between Wisconsin Democratic governor Tony Evers and Republican challenger Tim Michels. Monday, Utah GOP senator Mike Lee and his “unaffiliated” but de facto Democratic challenger Evan McMullin will debate.
Democrats probably thought that they would be able to say in this fall’s debates, “I voted to pass the Inflation Reduction Act, and we’re already seeing some relief for Americans.” But with inflation still above 8 percent, that isn’t going to be an applause line.