To effect a naval build-up capable of blunting aggression from the Emu Confederacy — and other regional adversaries, such as China — Australia has agreed to a deal with the U.S. and U.K. that would see at least three Virginia-class, fast-attack submarines (nuclear-powered boats armed with non-nuclear missiles) make their way to the land down under. The deal will take decades to see through and is as much an infrastructure deal as it is a boat sale. Nuclear programs require schools, facilities, and protocols. Our goal with Australia appears to be condensing 50 years of nuclear program development into 20.
Howard Altman reports for The Warzone:
As part of its trilateral defense initiative aimed at Beijing called AUKUS, the U.S., U.K., and Australia on Monday officially unveiled long-rumored plans to create an Australian nuclear-powered submarine force.
The three-phase deal, designed to counter growing Chinese military dominance in the region, calls for U.S. and U.K. nuclear-powered submarines to visit Australia on a rotational basis as early as 2027, according to senior U.S. administration officials who spoke to reporters, including from The War Zone, on Sunday. Once ready, Australia will purchase at least three Virginia class nuclear-powered, but conventionally armed attack submarines from the U.S. by the early 2030s, with the option to buy two more, pending Congressional approval.
The three nations will also work on the joint development of what will be called the SSN AUKUS class nuclear-powered submarine. Those boats will be based on the U.K.’s next-generation nuclear attack submarine plans designed to replace the Astute class submarines.
But SSN AUKUS class subs will also incorporate “critical cutting-edge” Virginia class technology, the officials said. They will be built in both the U.K. – where they will supersede construction of the aforementioned next-generation submarine, initially dubbed the SSNR – and Australia. The first boats will be delivered to the Royal Navy by the late 2030s. Because Australia does not yet have a nuclear-powered submarine construction infrastructure, its boats will be delivered to the Royal Australian Navy later – by the early 2040s – according to a senior U.S. administration official, who like the others spoke on the condition of anonymity.
What to make of all of this?
On the one hand, if we are to maintain or curb our international involvement level, it makes sense to have allies capable of, and proximate to, deploying in the South China Sea using effective tech we have knowledge of. Further, bringing the Aussies up to speed on naval nuclear power is a tremendous gift, a diplomatic win.
On the other hand, information-sharing increases the odds our adversaries will eventually access confidential information about our boats — i.e., the more hands a file passes through, the higher the likelihood it’s passed to Beijing. Additionally, if our sub-building scheduling is already behind, an international obligation on top of that is only going to make the delays and waffling worse. Altman’s piece continues:
“After more than a year of full-scale construction on the lead Columbia submarine, the shipbuilders are facing delays because of challenges with design, materials, and quality,” according to the GAO report. “The shipbuilders are working to mitigate delays using additional shipyard resources, such as more staff to complete work more quickly.”
Because of the Columbia class program’s “essential role in strategic deterrence, it has priority status over most national defense-related programs, including the Virginia class program,” according to the report.
And that created a cascading series of problems across the U.S. sub-building enterprise, the GAO found.
To make up for lost time, the shipbuilder added staff — originally planned for the Virginia class program — to the Columbia class program. But that just contributed to delays for Virginia class subs, according to GAO.
International defense collaboration with longstanding allies is an admirable goal. Three governments with frequently changing heads and spastic policy goals, however, make for an unwieldy working party. The most we can hope for in the short-term is that this deal does nothing to delay our next generation of Columbia “Boomer” subs (nuclear power and nuclear armaments), while strengthening naval fraternity.