I know it’s pretty early. I know I got last year wrong (I predicted Elliot Yamin would win based on the way political voting patterns usually work, and he came in third). But Jordin Sparks — 17 years old, preternaturally poised, possessed of multiracial beauty but a charming personality, a capacious voice and a remarkable ability to understand and convey the emotions of the songs she is singing — is going to be the next winner on “American Idol.”