The Corner

Fearless Prediction

Kerry 36, Dean 23, Edwards 18–Clark, Lieberman, and Kucinich trailing. The media will interpret New Hampshire voters as affirming Iowa’s decision to go with the “steady hand” over the “clenched fist,” to borrow the well-rendered phrases coming out of Kerry’s camp (thanks, Bob Shrum!). Kerry’s victory won’t carry the same glamor of surprise, but who needs that when you’re coming in first? Dean will stay in the race but now becomes desperate for a few victories next week. The same is true for John Edwards, who will be noted for another respectable performance but also for the fact that he still hasn’t won anything. Clark is finished, and deservedly so. He may try to limp through next week but he’s no longer a major candidate. Lieberman may finish a little ahead or a little behind Clark; he’s done, too, and may be expected to offer a gracious concession and withdrawal. Kucinich has nothing to lose in continuing to lose and loves the attention. He’s slog on. But can we start to ignore him now?

John J. Miller, the national correspondent for National Review and host of its Great Books podcast, is the director of the Dow Journalism Program at Hillsdale College. He is the author of A Gift of Freedom: How the John M. Olin Foundation Changed America.

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