…is indispensable today (as usual). A couple of things worth noting. On what the new “magic number” is likely to be:
But it’s quite likely that the magic number is going to change, because it appears that the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee has every intention of coming up with some sort of Florida/Michigan compromise. The one number we know it won’t be is 2,210 — the number the Clinton campaign keeps using, because there seems to be little appetite among DNC types (still angry at the calendar mess those two states created) from seating the delegations in full. That means some sort of cut. The most likely magic numbers would be 2,131 or 2,118, which would cut the two delegations in half, either keeping the supers fully in tact (the former number) or cutting them in half, too (the latter).
On the state of the popular vote (Hillary is closer to being ahead in the popular vote without having to exclude the “uncommitted” votes in Michigan):
A bit more on the popular vote… Without adding Florida and Michigan, as noted above, Obama leads by 419,913 votes. Adding Florida to the mix, he leads by 125,141 (17,149,621 to 17,274,762 ). And adding Michigan but not “uncommitted,” Clinton leads by 203,168 (17,477,930 to 17,274,762 ). But do note that the “uncommitted” vote was 238,168.
On why Obama’s white-working class problem might be exaggerated:
Here’s another thing that last night’s contests once again taught us: Obama doesn’t have a problem with white working-class voters; he has a problem with white-working class voters in Appalachian states. In Kentucky, just one in five of these folks backed him, but in Oregon nearly half of them did.