The Corner

First Read’s 64

From First Read:

First Read’s Field of 64


From NBC’s Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro

In lieu of our normal weekly First Read Top 10, we’re running our updated Field of 64, the list of the 64 House seats we consider most likely to switch parties in the fall. (No. 1, for instance, is the seat we consider most likely to flip.) For Republicans to take back the House, they need to pick up a NET of 39 seats. (So if Democrats are able to win three or four GOP seats, as they’re hoping to do, then Republicans must win 42 or 43 Democratic seats.) Political journalists and junkies: Clip and save this list, because it gives you a good idea of where the House battlefield is and whether or not Republicans can reach the number it needs to take back the House. There are 58 Democratic-held seats on this list, and six GOP-held ones.

1. TN-6 (D-Open-Gordon) LIKELY R

2. LA-3 (D-Open-Melancon) LIKELY R

3. DE-AL (R-Open-Castle) LIKELY D

4. AR-2 (D-Open-Snyder) LIKELY R

5. NY-29 (D-Open-Massa) LIKELY R

6. LA-2 (R-Cao) LEAN D

7. OH-15 (D-Kilroy) LEAN R

8. OH-1 (D-Driehaus) LEAN R

9. KS-3 (D-Open-Moore) LEAN R

10. CO-4 (D-Markey) LEAN R

11. FL-24 (D-Kosmas) LEAN R

12. N-8 (D-Open-Ellsworth) LEAN R

13. IL-10 (R-Open-Kirk) LEAN D

14. MD-1 (D-Kratovil) LEAN R

15. VA-5 (D-Perriello) LEAN R

16. VA-2 (D-Nye) LEAN R

17. AZ-5 (D-Mitchell) TOSS UP

18. OH-16 (D-Boccieri) TOSS UP

19. PA-7 (D-Sestak-Open) TOSS UP

20. NM-2 (D-Teague) TOSS UP

21. PA-3 (D-Dahlkemper) TOSS UP

22. IL-11 (D-Halvorson) TOSS UP

23. AZ-1 (D-Kirkpatrick) TOSS UP

24. FL-2 (D-Boyd) TOSS UP

25. PA-11 (D-Kanjorski) TOSS UP

26. AR-1 (D-Berry) TOSS UP

27. FL-8 (D-Grayson) TOSS UP

28. HI-1 (R-Djou) TOSS UP

29. PA-8 (D-Murphy) TOSS UP

30. ND-AL (D-Pomeroy) TOSS UP

31. SC-5 (D-Spratt) TOSS UP

32. NV-3 (D-Titus) TOSS UP

33. MS-1 (D-Childers) TOSS UP

34. TN-8 (D-Open-Tanner) TOSS UP

35. TX-17 (D-Edwards) TOSS UP

36. NH-1 (D-Shea-Porter) TOSS UP

37. MI-1 (D-Open-Stupak) TOSS UP

38. NH-2 (D-Open-Hodes) TOSS UP

39. SD-AL (D-Herseth-Sandlin) TOSS UP

40. MI-7 (D-Schauer freshman) TOSS UP

41. NY-19 (D-Hall) TOSS UP

42. WA-3 (D-Open-Baird retiring)TOSS UP

43. OH-13 (D-Sutton) TOSS UP

44. WI-8 (D-Kagen) TOSS UP

45. NY-24 (D-Arcuri) TOSS UP

46. IN-9 (D-Hill) TOSS UP

47. IL-14 (D-Foster) TOSS UP

48. TX-23 (D-Rodriguez) TOSS UP

49. IL-17 (D-Hare) TOSS UP

50. CO-3 (D-Salazar) TOSS UP

51. GA-2 (D-Bishop) TOSS UP

52. CA-11 (D-McNerney) TOSS UP

53. WI-7 (D-Obey-Open) TOSS UP

54. AL-2 (D-Bright) TOSS UP

55. AZ-8 (D-Giffords) TOSS UP

56. WV-1 (D- Open-Mollohan) TOSS UP

57. NM-1 (D-Heinrich) LEAN D

58. NJ-3 (D-Adler) LEAN D

59. NC-8 (D-Kissell) LEAN D

60. GA-8 (D-Marshall) LEAN D

61. CA-3 (R-Lungren) LEAN R

62. NY-20 (D-Murphy) LEAN D

63. FL-25 (R-Diaz-Balart) LEAN R

64. IA-3 (D-Boswell) LEAN D

Geraghty? Ponnuru? Lowry? Foster? Costa? Agree? Disagree? Annoying question marks?


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