From First Read:
First Read’s Field of 64
From NBC’s Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
In lieu of our normal weekly First Read Top 10, we’re running our updated Field of 64, the list of the 64 House seats we consider most likely to switch parties in the fall. (No. 1, for instance, is the seat we consider most likely to flip.) For Republicans to take back the House, they need to pick up a NET of 39 seats. (So if Democrats are able to win three or four GOP seats, as they’re hoping to do, then Republicans must win 42 or 43 Democratic seats.) Political journalists and junkies: Clip and save this list, because it gives you a good idea of where the House battlefield is and whether or not Republicans can reach the number it needs to take back the House. There are 58 Democratic-held seats on this list, and six GOP-held ones.
1. TN-6 (D-Open-Gordon) LIKELY R
2. LA-3 (D-Open-Melancon) LIKELY R
3. DE-AL (R-Open-Castle) LIKELY D
4. AR-2 (D-Open-Snyder) LIKELY R
5. NY-29 (D-Open-Massa) LIKELY R
6. LA-2 (R-Cao) LEAN D
7. OH-15 (D-Kilroy) LEAN R
8. OH-1 (D-Driehaus) LEAN R
9. KS-3 (D-Open-Moore) LEAN R
10. CO-4 (D-Markey) LEAN R
11. FL-24 (D-Kosmas) LEAN R
12. N-8 (D-Open-Ellsworth) LEAN R
13. IL-10 (R-Open-Kirk) LEAN D
14. MD-1 (D-Kratovil) LEAN R
15. VA-5 (D-Perriello) LEAN R
16. VA-2 (D-Nye) LEAN R
17. AZ-5 (D-Mitchell) TOSS UP
18. OH-16 (D-Boccieri) TOSS UP
19. PA-7 (D-Sestak-Open) TOSS UP
20. NM-2 (D-Teague) TOSS UP
21. PA-3 (D-Dahlkemper) TOSS UP
22. IL-11 (D-Halvorson) TOSS UP
23. AZ-1 (D-Kirkpatrick) TOSS UP
24. FL-2 (D-Boyd) TOSS UP
25. PA-11 (D-Kanjorski) TOSS UP
26. AR-1 (D-Berry) TOSS UP
27. FL-8 (D-Grayson) TOSS UP
28. HI-1 (R-Djou) TOSS UP
29. PA-8 (D-Murphy) TOSS UP
30. ND-AL (D-Pomeroy) TOSS UP
31. SC-5 (D-Spratt) TOSS UP
32. NV-3 (D-Titus) TOSS UP
33. MS-1 (D-Childers) TOSS UP
34. TN-8 (D-Open-Tanner) TOSS UP
35. TX-17 (D-Edwards) TOSS UP
36. NH-1 (D-Shea-Porter) TOSS UP
37. MI-1 (D-Open-Stupak) TOSS UP
38. NH-2 (D-Open-Hodes) TOSS UP
39. SD-AL (D-Herseth-Sandlin) TOSS UP
40. MI-7 (D-Schauer freshman) TOSS UP
41. NY-19 (D-Hall) TOSS UP
42. WA-3 (D-Open-Baird retiring)TOSS UP
43. OH-13 (D-Sutton) TOSS UP
44. WI-8 (D-Kagen) TOSS UP
45. NY-24 (D-Arcuri) TOSS UP
46. IN-9 (D-Hill) TOSS UP
47. IL-14 (D-Foster) TOSS UP
48. TX-23 (D-Rodriguez) TOSS UP
49. IL-17 (D-Hare) TOSS UP
50. CO-3 (D-Salazar) TOSS UP
51. GA-2 (D-Bishop) TOSS UP
52. CA-11 (D-McNerney) TOSS UP
53. WI-7 (D-Obey-Open) TOSS UP
54. AL-2 (D-Bright) TOSS UP
55. AZ-8 (D-Giffords) TOSS UP
56. WV-1 (D- Open-Mollohan) TOSS UP
57. NM-1 (D-Heinrich) LEAN D
58. NJ-3 (D-Adler) LEAN D
59. NC-8 (D-Kissell) LEAN D
60. GA-8 (D-Marshall) LEAN D
61. CA-3 (R-Lungren) LEAN R
62. NY-20 (D-Murphy) LEAN D
63. FL-25 (R-Diaz-Balart) LEAN R
64. IA-3 (D-Boswell) LEAN D
Geraghty? Ponnuru? Lowry? Foster? Costa? Agree? Disagree? Annoying question marks?