The Corner

Elections

FiveThirtyEight: Biden Now Twice As Likely As Sanders to Win Most Delegates Overall

There’s been an absolutely wild swing in the FiveThirtyEight model that estimates the chances of each candidate’s having the most delegates heading into the Democratic National Convention. 

Just seven days ago, the Democratic candidates’ chances of winning a plurality of delegates were: Sanders 70 percent, Biden 18 percent, Bloomberg 9 percent. But the odds of winning a plurality of delegates have dramatically flipped following Biden’s 28-point victory in South Carolina, a fresh round of polling, and the endorsements of Biden by Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg, and Beto O’Rourke. 

According to FiveThirtyEight, the Democratic candidates’ chances of winning the most delegates are now Biden 65 percent, Sanders 34 percent, and Bloomberg 0.9 percent.

The FiveThirtyEight model still shows that it’s more likely than not that no candidate wins an outright majority of pledged delegates during the primaries: Biden has a 31 percent chance of a majority, Sanders 8 percent, and “no one” 61 percent.

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