As predicted here a fortnight ago, Charlie Crist starts the fall campaign against Ron DeSantis within the margin of error. The first poll of the general election, this one from Florida Watch, has DeSantis leading Crist, 48-45 percent.
Two thoughts for those of you who were assuming, or hoping, that DeSantis would be breezing to an easy win.
- Much has been written, some of it by me, to the effect that Crist is both a political chameleon and a chronic campaigner. That is incontestably true, on both counts, but it leaves unsaid the fact that in campaigning chronically Crist has learned how to campaign exceptionally well. He remembers your name. He remembers your wife’s name. He remembers how pretty her dress was at the dinner last February. In the estimate of your high-mileage correspondent, Crist is the best retail campaigner since Bill Clinton. Do those skills give Crist a decisive advantage in the gubernatorial race? No. Could they give him an advantage at the margin against an opponent who can be awkward and distant on the campaign trail? Possibly.
- DeSantis starts with a huge lead in the money race. DeSantis has more than $100 million cash on hand. Crist, after an expensive primary, is functionally broke. Could $25 million worth of negative ads put a dent in Crist’s favorability ratings? You bet. They could put a dent in the favorability ratings of Tom Cruise. Here’s the mitigating factor for Crist: This race is unusual in that the challenging congressman is better known to the voters than the incumbent governor. Many of those negative ads will bounce off Crist, and some of them could bounce back on DeSantis. The governor’s ads must be the work of a surgeon, not a butcher. Bottom line: It is preferable, emphatically so, to have the money rather than the “opportunity to be creative,” as one overcaffeinated Crist operative puts it.
If I were a betting man, and deplorably I am, I would take DeSantis. But I’m not giving any points just yet.