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From last night’s Special Report with Brit Hume:

On the House

BILL KRISTOL: I don’t think anything is happening that would be enough to make a difference in the House. There’s no [generic] poll that is now closer than four points. Fox News is now showing it’s back up to 13. No, I think Democrats are going to win the House.

FRED BARNES: Republicans . . . normally have a higher percentage of likely voters than among Democrats. And for months and months now Democrats had, in polls anyway, a higher percentage of voters who are actually going to go to the polls. Now it switched back to the way it normally which is in an election, with Republicans more likely to go to the polls. And that means, I think, that it means that Republicans going to do better than they were, it looked like, a week ago or two weeks ago.

HUME: What’s your estimate, Fred? You’re saying in the 20 to 25 range? Control of the House with a small margin.


MORT KONDRACKE: You know, I’m in the 25 to 30 range. Something like that — bigger.

HUME: What do you think — Bill.

KRISTOL: Thirty-two as of today. I think it will trend a little bigger. . . . It could be 35 to 40. Right now . . . trying to go through every district, I got to 32.

On the Senate

KRISTOL: It could be 51-49 [for the Democrats]. So many close races. I talked to one Democrat today who said, Rhode Island, they’re now very nervous about Chafee. He’s had a pretty impressive comeback there. On the other hand, Arizona, which was considered a safe Republican seat is now down to about a four-point race. . . . I think Kyl [AZ] could lose, that would be an upset. If Kyl loses, that will mean it’s a true blow-out on election night, obviously. I think the Senate’s, 50-50, but yeah.

KONDRACKE: I think about a five or six seat pick-up in the Senate. . . .

BARNES: At the end of the day there’s one thing that helps Republicans and that is voters don’t like Democrats either. But, so for that reason among others, I don’t think Democrats will take the Senate.

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