In the chaotic Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor, Hong has had the ‘Mao was too moderate’ lane all to herself.
In the wake of the surprise slugfest that Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary turned out to be — with DSA-affiliated Abdul El-Sayed edging out the alarmingly accented Representative Haley Stevens by less than a point — all eyes have now turned to its Midwestern neighbor. Wisconsin holds its gubernatorial primary next Tuesday, August 11, and DSA-backed candidate Francesca Hong holds a commanding lead in the race . . . much as El-Sayed did, right up until the moment the votes were actually tallied.
There are many things I could say about the race to replace Tony Evers, but they will have to wait until next Tuesday’s Carnival of Fools. For now, let us address the question urgently being asked by every panicked non-socialist Democrat across the nation: Can Francesca Hong somehow be stopped? What if the polls in America’s Dairyland are as dementedly out of whack as those in Michigan turned out to be? Might enough Democratic primary voters awaken in time to the dangers of a DSA candidate who embodies all the worst stereotypes of Madison progressivism?
The short answer: Maybe, but it would have to be a bank-shot play. Hong is strongly favored to win next week not just because she leads in all the polls but because the 2026 Democratic primary in the Wisconsin governor’s race has been a pig circus for the ages: a rake-stepping slopshow brought to you by a set of flat-footed cheesehead palookas seemingly incapable of getting out of their own damn way.
I wrote the longer version of this story for NR once already, back in late July, but to briefly recap: The Democratic race to succeed Governor Evers began as a four-person scrum between lieutenant governors (former, Mandela Barnes; current, Sara Rodriguez), one Milwaukee County executive (David Crowley), and a kookoo-bananas Madison-area DSA-affiliated state representative named Francesca Hong, who had the “Mao was too moderate” lane all to herself.
Inevitably the three establishment candidates canceled each other out, leaving Hong the front-runner. Then Crowley dropped out of the race to endorse Rodriguez. Then Rodriguez dropped out (after the polling failed to consolidate behind her), and Crowley hopped back into the race. This hapless little pas de deux was conducted with open contempt for the existence of Mandela Barnes, even though he was the actual second-place candidate in the polls. Barnes read the writing on the wall and dropped out on July 30, leaving it a two-person race between Hong and Crowley . . . with two other major names still on the ballot.
This is a problem. Leave aside the fact that Crowley doesn’t seem to be setting voters’ hearts on fire. Even if the Democratic electorate instantly consolidates behind him next Tuesday, it may be too late. Perhaps the most applicable lesson from the Michigan primary is that in a close race, the presence of spoilers on the ballot can kill candidacies. Mallory McMorrow dropped out of the primary a full month before the day of voting but had to remain on the ballot, because mail ballots went out on June 25, before she left the race. McMorrow garnered a mere 4 percent of the vote, but that turned out to be nearly four times the difference between loser Haley Stevens and victor Abdul El-Sayed.
Now imagine a race where two candidates (Rodriguez and Barnes) have already dropped out, in favor of a candidate who dropped out a month before that, only to get back in at the last second. It’s a recipe for chaos — how many voters even know that Barnes is no longer in the race? — and voters have been returning ballots this entire time.
There is one reason for hope: As dominant as Hong’s lead over a confused and changing field has consistently remained, it has never risen above 38 percent of the Democratic vote in the polling averages. That is a perilously low ceiling — very different from El-Sayed’s in Michigan — suggesting that she has been unable to extend her following beyond the ultra-liberal enclave of Madison. (This also is suggestive of her acute weakness in the general election — but more about that next week.) Crowley could pull out an upset on Tuesday, on the back of the Milwaukee (read: black) Democratic vote and a rebellion from the rural areas of the state.
But that’s not the way to bet it. What rough beast, its hour come round at last, slouches toward Madison to be born? We shall find out next week, but place your money on Hong.