From Gallup:
By 19% to 15%, a slightly higher percentage of Republicans than Democrats have already voted. When those who intend to vote before Election Day are factored in, the gap is similar: 37% of Republicans vs. 33% of Democrats.
However, when one looks at the voting intentions of likely voters according to candidate support, the political impact for the two candidates appears to be roughly equal. Of Barack Obama’s supporters, 15% have already voted and a total of 33% indicate they will vote early. Of Mitt Romney’s supporters, the figures are 17% and 34%, respectively.
Romney Leads Among Early Voters, Similar to His Likely Voter Lead
Thus far, early voters do not seem to be swaying the election toward either candidate.
Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. However, that is comparable to Romney’s 51% to 46% lead among all likely voters in Gallup’s Oct. 22-28 tracking polling. At the same time, the race is tied at 49% among those who have not yet voted but still intend to vote early, suggesting these voters could cause the race to tighten. However, Romney leads 51% to 45% among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6.