After a two-week surge by Democrats, Republicans have regained their lead on Gallup’s generic congressional ballot. According to Gallup, registered voters now favor the GOP by a five-point margin, 48 percent to 43 percent.
Gallup points out in its analysis that the five-point edge is “not statistically significant,” but it does represent a “return to the prevailing 2010 pattern, seen since mid-March, whereby Republicans were tied or held a slight advantage over Democrats in most Gallup Daily tracking weekly averages.”
Republicans’ resurgence this past week could simply represent a return to the prior norm, but may also have been spurred by the Afghanistan war documents leak, the federal judge’s ruling that blocked the implementation of certain aspects of the Arizona immigration law, and perhaps ethics investigations into two powerful senior Democratic members of the House, Charlie Rangel and Maxine Waters.
If Republicans can keep up these numbers among registered voters, Gallup predicts that there could be “major seat gains” for the party in November. President Obama’s approval rating, it adds, remains flat at 45 percent.